VAUGHAN, ONT.—Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives maintain a slight lead over their Liberal rivals as the federal campaign kicks off, according to new data from Forum Research.
In a survey of 1,001 Canadian voters Wednesday, Forum found that 36.3 per cent would support the Conservatives if a vote were held today, while 32.4 per cent would vote Liberal. The Greens continue to poll ahead of the NDP with 11.6 per cent, compared to 8.6 support for the New Democrats.
According to Forum’s projections, Wednesday’s results would translate into a Conservative minority government with Scheer’s party taking 168 seats to the Liberals 138. The NDP (16), Bloc Québécois (11) and the Greens (5) would make up the rest of Parliament, with Maxime Bernier’s upstart People’s Party of Canada projected to win no seats.
“On day one, we see the Conservatives resume their lead, but it’s only slight,” said Lorne Bozinoff, the president of Forum Research, in a statement.
“The environment and the economy continue to lead as issues foremost to Canadians right now. How the campaign shifts to match these issues, and how the parties address them, will be fascinating to watch.”
Respondents listed the environment (22.8 per cent) and the economy (22.8 per cent) as their most important issues, followed by health care (15 per cent), taxes (10.5 per cent), and education (8.4 per cent).
The Conservatives have consistently led Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party in Forum’s data for months, although Wednesday’s numbers are a wider lead than Forum’s findings in June and July.
“The change is within the margin of error, (but) it’s in the right direction for the Tories,” Bozinoff said in an interview.

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“But what it does show is a point or two change in the numbers makes all the difference in getting to a majority. This race is super close.”
Regional breakdowns, however, suggested that the Conservatives’ stranglehold on Alberta and the Prairies — where the party is expected to dominate in the Oct. 21 vote — inflates their national numbers. According to Forum’s data, the Liberals enjoy a healthy lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, and are running neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in Ontario. The Conservatives lead the Liberals by 10 points in British Columbia, with 37 per cent support in a province expected to be important for determining who wins power on Oct. 21.
Forum surveyed a random sample of 1,001 voting aged Canadians on Wednesday. The polling company considers the results accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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Alex Boutilier
Alex Boutilier is an Ottawa-based reporter covering national politics. Follow him on Twitter: @alexboutilier
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