Under the right conditions, a minority Conservative government could emerge from Monday's election -- and survive.
MARK BLINCH / REUTERS
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper may be playing defence, using the last days of this campaign to shore up support in established Conservative ridings. But all he needs to win a plurality in the next Parliament is a good defence, one that assures him of more seats than any other single party, writes Thomas Walkom.
Stephen Harper is far from finished.
True, the polls aren’t going his way. True also that CTV is citing anonymous Conservative insiders who say the prime minister has gone into one of his dark funks.
But there was no sign of Surly Steve Tuesday, as an energetic Harper hammered home his low-tax message in the Toronto suburb of Etobicoke.
His props, such as a faux cash register that rang every time Harper mentioned what he called Liberal tax hikes, were cheesy.
But in politics, cheese often works.
The prime minister may be playing defence, using the last days of this campaign to shore up support in established Conservative ridings.
But all he needs to win a plurality in the next Parliament is a good defence, one that assures him of more seats than any other single party.
While he might prefer another iron-clad majority, he has led minority governments twice before — and made them work.
In those years, he skillfully exploited the divisions between the opposition Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois to advance his agenda.
Another Harper-led minority government would find survival harder. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Green Leader Elizabeth May have all said they won’t prop up a Conservative minority.
Analysts have speculated that Harper will either step down as Conservative leader or be forced out if his party wins only a plurality of seats in Monday’s election.
But politics is a funny business. Those who have power are reluctant to give it up. Those who want power can be remarkably flexible.
It’s near impossible to predict what the various political parties might do until the detailed elections results are in.
But suppose, for instance, that a rejuvenated Bloc Québécois wins enough seats to hold the balance of power between the Conservatives on one side and the combined Liberal-NDP-Green parties on the other.
This is not far-fetched. Polls suggest that Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc is gaining in Quebec at the expense of the NDP.
After the 2008 election, the Bloc allied with the Liberals and New Democrats in an unsuccessful effort to form a coalition that would oust Harper.
After this election, could the somewhat social-democratic Bloc plausibly support a hard-right Conservative minority government designed to keep Harper in power?
Perhaps it could. Like Harper (but unlike Trudeau and Mulcair), Duceppe has taken a hard line against Muslim women who wear the niqab. Like the Conservatives (but unlike the Liberals and NDP), the Bloc fully supports Canada’s participation in the air war against Islamic State militants.
More to the point, and unlike the situation in 2008, the Bloc and NDP are fierce competitors in Quebec. In a hung parliament, Duceppe might find it politically more useful to side with Harper rather than support any coalition or grouping that included Mulcair.
So that’s one scenario that could allow a Harper minority government to survive.
Another is the tried and true practice of dangling goodies, such as cabinet posts, in front of individual opposition MPs.
That tactic was used successfully by Saskatchewan NDP premier Roy Romanow who, after the 1999 provincial election had reduced his party to minority status, enticed three of four elected Liberals into what he called a coalition government. Two were rewarded with cabinet posts; the third was named Speaker.
As sitting prime minister, Harper has considerable manouevring room should the election fail to deliver a parliamentary majority to any single party.
By law he need not recall Parliament until June. By constitutional convention, he is the one whom Governor-General David Johnston must consult first before asking anyone to form a government.
If, after Monday’s election, the Conservatives are just a few seats short of a majority, Johnston would be within his rights to give Harper time to come up with a solution. If no solution is reached and Harper, after being defeated in the Commons, demands a snap election to determine who should run the country, tradition would suggest that Johnston accept his advice.
All of which is to say that unless voters drive a metaphorical stake into Harper’s heart by denying him even minority government status, the prime minister may well be able to carry on.
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