Scheer attends a Stampede breakfast in Calgary, on July 6, 2019 (Jeff McIntosh/CP)
Here is a short excerpt from last Sunday’s 338Canada projection published in Maclean’s: “As we enter the middle of summer, Canadian pollsters will probably take a much-needed break before the fall campaign…”
Well, that’s a prediction that went wrong. Hopefully, it’ll be my worst one this year.
As many as five new federal polls were published last week from Nanos, EKOS, Campaign Research, Ipsos/Global News and the Angus Reid Institute. We also add to the pile a Mainstreet/iPolitics poll for the federal district of Niagara Centre, which contained disturbing numbers for the NDP in a region where it usually performs well.
The complete list of federal polls can be found on this page.
Taken individually, these polls do not tell the same story. Here’s a short recap:
Nanos released its latest update last Tuesday and has the Liberals ahead by as much as six points nationally. When we break down the numbers by region, we notice that the greatest difference between Nanos and its rival pollsters is the numbers in Quebec. Whereas Nanos has the Liberals 20 points in front of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) in Quebec, the average Liberal lead in Quebec has been in the 8 to 12 point-range lately. When one’s numbers differ so much in a province that makes 23 per cent of Canada’s population, it is bound to affect one’s national numbers. Obviously, we are not saying that Nanos is wrong, but its Quebec numbers could explain the discrepancy with other pollsters we have observed lately;
EKOS and Campaign Research both measured statistical ties between the Liberals and Conservatives at the federal level, with the Liberals ahead in Ontario. Also, both these firms also have the Green Party of Canada at 15 and 14 per cent nationally, respectively, which is noticeably higher than the GPC’s current average.
Finally, Ipsos/Global News and the Angus Reid Institute both show the Conservatives ahead by significant margins nationally (6 and 8 points, respectively). Whereas Angus Reid measures a statistical tie in Ontario, Ipsos has the CPC ahead by six points.
The diverging nature of these latest polls has been detailed and graphed here, and is the main reason this week’s 338Canada projection shows so much uncertainty. Keep in mind that this is a feature, and not a bug: if the data is uncertain, the projection is uncertain.
Here is the 338Canada popular vote projection for July 21st, 2019:
(The coloured bars represent the 338 projection confidence intervals, and the black dots are last week’s national polls. NR: Nanos Research; EK: EKOS; CR: Campaign Research; IPS: Ipsos, ARI: Angus Reid Institute)
The Conservative Party remains on top of national voting intentions with an average of 34.5 per cent, a two-point lead over the Liberals, whose average stands at 32.3 per cent.
There is significant uncertainty (and noise) with the race for third place, as the NDP has polled between 11 (EKOS) and 19 per cent (Nanos) last week. The NDP’s average remains stable at 14.5 per cent. The Greens’ poll numbers have been just as wild: from 7 per cent (Ipsos) to 15 per cent (EKOS) average stays just above the 10 per cent threshold with 10.6 per cent.
The Bloc québécois stands at 19.1 per cent in Quebec (4.4 per cent nationally). Maxime Bernier’s PPC is at 2.8 per cent.
Seat-wise, we still have a dead-heat for first place. The Conservatives win an average of 149 seats and the Liberals, 147 seats. Even though a normal-size polling error in favour of any of those two parties could wildly tip the seat projection, this data tells us that the most likely scenario remains a minority government.
The NDP wins an average of 23 seats, the Bloc 13 and the Greens 6.
Although Maxime Bernier remains competitive in Beauce, he is not currently projected ahead against the CPC challenger.
In Vancouver-Granville, independent candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould is projected leading a very close race against the Liberals.
As for the odds of winning the most seats, current data suggests it is a real toss-up, see graph below:
Let us take a look at the regional vote and seat projections. We present the data here for six different regions: Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies (MB/SK), Alberta, and British Columbia. Note that this is not an editorial choice, but the usual regional divisions chosen by pollsters in Canada. Atlantic Provinces
In the Atlantic Provinces, the Liberals still lead the Conservatives on average, but the gap is nowhere close to the 2015 level—when the Liberals completely swept the 32 districts of the region.
The seat projection still gives the edge to the Liberals with an average of 22 seats, but such a result would still be a net loss of 10 seats for the LPC—and it is worth noting that the Liberals won a total of 184 seats in 2015, only 14 more seats than the threshold for a majority. Quebec
Many in Canada still hold the narrative that the Liberals dominate voting intentions in Quebec, when in fact the Liberal average is closer to one third of voting intentions (the LPC won 35 per cent of the Quebec vote in 2015). The Liberals are indeed in first place in the polling average, but their current score can hardly be described as “dominant”.
However, this splintering of the non-Liberal vote allows the LPC to run away with the seat projection in the province with an average of 47. The Conservatives and the Bloc are also projected to make modest gains compared to their 2015 result in the province. The NDP is facing a near-complete collapse in Quebec. Ontario
The province of Ontario received more than its fair share of attention lately, with poll numbers indicating that the Conservatives brand may be affected by Doug Ford’s troubles. Whereas many polls have shown the Liberals gaining lately in Ontario, the amplitude of this trend has not been unanimous among pollsters.
It is in Ontario where the seat projection is the most uncertain, with confidence intervals in the ±30 seats range for the Liberals and Conservatives. On average, the LPC wins 60 Ontario seats and the Conservatives, 48 seats. (In 2015, the Liberals won 80 of the province’s 121 seats. The CPC took 33.) Manitoba and Saskatchewan
In the Prairies, the Conservatives still hold a commanding lead over their opponents. On average, the CPC has a 2/0-point lead over the Liberals.
Among the region’s 28 districts, the Conservatives are favoured in every district outside of Winnipeg, Niki Ashton’s district of Churchill–Keewatinook Aski, and Ralph Goodale’s district of Regina–Wascana. Alberta
Unsurprisingly, the Conservatives dominate voting intentions in Alberta, and hold an average 40-point lead of the Liberals.
With such results in the polls, it is nearly impossible to see a scenario where the Liberals could hold on to any of their Alberta seats come October. As for the NDP, it is still projected ahead in Edmonton-Strathcona, even though current MP Linda Duncan announced last year that she would not seek re-election this fall. A complete 34-seat Conservative sweep of the province is not an implausible scenario. British Columbia British Columbia is the province where polling numbers have swung the most since last year. Polls do not generally agree which party is ahead and by how much, and by how much support is really going towards the Greens. In the last week only, the Greens were measured as low as 10 per cent in B.C. according to Nanos, but as high as 24 and 32 per cent according to Campaign Research and EKOS, respectively. (Naturally, regional numbers are based on smaller samples, hence the higher variance between polls.)
Many Vancouver seats will be battles between the Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives are leading most of B.C. rural districts. The Greens are currently projected ahead in five of seven Vancouver Island districts:
Exactly three months from today, Canadians will head to the voting booths to choose their local Members of Parliament. If an election were held today, the result would most likely (but not assuredly) lead to a minority government. While some will suggest that projecting vote shares and seats is a futile exercise that long before an election, I would argue that envisioning such hypothetical scenarios may help us understand the strategy behind every party’s campaign.
Should the Liberals win the most seats, would they be able to forge a temporary alliance with the Greens or NDP, despite the purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline? Would those two parties require a promise of electoral reform in exchange for their support?
If the Conservatives win the most seats, will they even be able to win the confidence of the House? Or will they have painted themselves in such a corner that the smaller parties refuse to support them in that quest? Could it be majority or bust for Andrew Scheer?
And what would the Bloc québécois do in such in situation?
So many questions, so many hypotheticals, and yet only 92 days until election day.
Why polls still matter - even when they can't agree
In this week’s Canada Votes newsletter: Do polls really matter three months out from election day? And why is there such disagreement between polls right now?
Social Sharing
The Canada Votes newsletter is your weekly tip-sheet as we count down to Oct. 21
CBC News ·
(From left to right) Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer and People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier.
The only poll that matters is election day. Really? Vassy Kapelos, host of Power & Politics
My question to the Power Panelists was dismissed within seconds.
"Guys, what do you read into these numbers right now?" I asked.
Two of the panelists rejected the premise of my question almost immediately, reminding me that "the only poll that matters" is the one that happens when Canadians cast their ballots on election day.
I take their point. I think I've heard their point (in scrums, interviews and Power Panel discussions) about 300 times by now. Of course the only vote that "matters" is the one on election day (which, by the way, is exactly three months away). But these pre-election polls matter, too. And at least one (OK, only one) panelist agreed with me. "We do look at those numbers," said formerNew Democrat MP Françoise Boivin. "Anybody who says otherwise is kidding you."
A woman enters Maple High School in Vaughan, Ont., to cast her vote in the federal election on Oct. 19, 2015. Voters go to the polls this year on Monday, Oct. 21. (Peter Power/Canadian Press)
But how do they matter? There's no easy answer to that one. Polls, and how journalists report on polls, get a lot of scrutiny in the run-up to an election. I'm OK with that scrutiny; we in the media have gotten polls wrong before. And a lot of people are sick of the horse-race reporting. I get that. Still, there's value in examining a poll's description of voters' feelings at certain points in time. We know, for example, that the SNC Lavalin story had an impact on Canadians' perceptions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals — because polls told us it did. We also know (from polls) that the impact of that controversy has faded since. Regional polling breakdowns are helpful too: we know the NDP is struggling in Quebec and we know the 905 area surrounding Toronto will be a key battleground.
All of which helps us to understand why politicians choose to campaign in certain ridings, why they embrace certain policies and which demographics they're trying to target. Polls also help us understand their vulnerabilities and evaluate whether they can overcome them. But not all polls say the same thing — recent polls have shown a wide inconsistency in federal results — and interpreting them can be hard. My colleague Éric Grenier is better equipped to tackle that question, as he does a bit later in this newsletter. Parties do their own internal polling, of course, and it helps to drive a lot of decision-making during a campaign. Notice how Justin Trudeau talks about Doug Ford far more often than he mentions Andrew Scheer? There's a reason for that: internal polling shows the Liberals that it's an effective approach.
So three months out from E-Day, polls tell ushow Canadians are feeling about their representatives and which issues are important to them. They don't tell us for certain what's going to happen in October. As long as everyone gets that, we're good.
After all, the only poll that really matters is the one on election day. (Or so I've been told.) Vassy Kapelos is host of Power & Politics, weekdays at 5 p.m. ET on CBC News Network.
Power Lines
The Power & Politics Power Panelists on where the big parties will be focused this week. Amanda Alvaro president and co-founder of Pomp & Circumstance Liberalswill be highlighting how the Canada Child Benefit is increasing again this week to keep up with the cost of living and help families get ahead. They'll be reminding Canadians that the Conservatives voted against the CCB — a program that has provided more money to families tax-free, and has lifted 300,000 kids out of poverty — in favour of their practice of sending cheques to millionaires. Rachel Curran senior associate at Harper & Associates Consulting Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer will be spending next week in Quebec, meeting as many Canadians as possible. He will be continuing to highlight the cost-of-living crunch that many Canadian families are facing and pointing out that Justin Trudeau is "Not as Advertised." Kathleen Monk principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group New Democrats are in "The Six" (Toronto) this week, talking about the affordability crisis. Jagmeet Singh kicks things off with the nomination of three Brampton candidates. He'll then spend the week doing GTA media. New Democrats plan to engage as many voters as possible, arguing that if we want better results for people, we must make different choices than the ones Liberals and Conservatives have made.
Poll Tracker Takeaway
Éric Grenier's weekly look at key numbers in the political public opinion polls. If you were confused by the polls this week, nobody blames you. Nanos Research says the Liberals are ahead by six percentage points. Campaign Research gives them an edge of just one. Then there's Ipsos, which puts the Conservatives ahead by six points, and the Angus Reid Institute which puts them up by eight.
That's a 14-point spread. It's a big one.
Maybe that shouldn't be too surprising. We're in the midst of summer, after all, and voting intentions aren't exactly locked-in. These polls also were conducted using a variety of methodologies and the field dates don't all quite line up. The Nanos poll, for instance, was done over four weeks, while the other three were conducted over a week or less.
And this isn't even the first time we've seen significant variations between polls, and between these pollsters in particular.
So let's not worry about the top line numbers too much. On the whole, the polls point to a competitive, volatile race that probably favours the Conservatives. Let's look instead at the trend lines — because that's what really matters at this stage.
The last time these four pollsters were all in the field at the same time was in early June. Since then, three have recorded gains for the Liberals ranging from one to five points, while the fourth (Ipsos) shows the Liberals holding steady. Similarly, three firms show the Conservatives dropping from one to four points, with Ipsos again showing a stable trend line.
There's no obvious pattern for the New Democrats or Greens in either direction. This points to a race that's probably getting tighter, with the Liberals ticking up and the Conservatives ticking down. That's something we can say with a fair degree of certainty.
And if the numbers are still showing these wide variations the day before election day? That will be the time to freak out.
We want to know what YOU want to know. One reader asked: I want to hear what specifically Andrew Scheer will do with regards to seeing the Trans Mountain pipeline completed. Will he sell it before completion, leaving it to fall back to private enterprise to complete it?
If there is one goal that both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer share, it's the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Now that the pipeline has been approved, however, it's not clear how Scheer would take the file in a different direction should he become prime minister.
When it comes to approving pipelines in Canada and managing how those pipelines affect the natural environment, however, Scheer has a very different approach that hinges on repealing two recently passed pieces of legislation that matter to the oil industry.
The first law is the federal government's new environmental assessment legislation, which changes the rules for how natural resource projects are developed in Canada. Critics of the law, passed this June, say environmental restrictions contained within it make natural resource development in Canada too onerous and endanger their ability to draw the investment they need to see projects through to completion. When Trudeau announced the government was buying the Trans Mountain pipeline to ensure it gets built, Scheer criticized the move, saying that the Liberals' stringent environmental legislation has created a climate where the only way to ensure large projects are built is for the federal government to take over. Scheer has said that if he becomes prime minister he will repeal not only the environmental assessment law (which he calls the "No More Pipelines" law) but also the Liberals' tanker ban off the West Coast. Doing both would give industry more certainty, Scheer said, and ensure the federal government does not need to take a financial stake in projects to see them built. Scheer also said he would "invoke federal jurisdiction when necessary" to ensure projects are built, but has not explained how he would use this authority with respect to Trans Mountain. Scheer has proposed a national west-east energy corridor that would include a pipeline from Alberta and Saskatchewan to oil refineries in Quebec. But Quebec Premier François Legault has said there is no "social acceptability" for a pipeline in his province.
Under federal law (as Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has pointed out) the federal government has full jurisdiction when it comes to cross-provincial infrastructure like a pipeline, so any prime minister could force one through regardless of what the provinces say. Whether Scheer would be willing to go to war with Quebec over an energy corridor remains unclear. -- Peter Zimonjic, Senior Writer, CBC Parliamentary Bureau Have a question about the October election? About where the federal parties stand on a particular issue? Or about the facts of a key controversy on the federal scene? Email us your questions and we'll answer one in the next Canada Votes newsletter.
1
2
3
4
5
No comments:
Post a Comment